Yilmaz KOC, Baris SURUCU and Nafiz ALEMDAROGLU

To be competitive in the market, it is very important to design cost effective and reliable products. For this purpose, it is necessary to consider reliability as an integral part of the design procedure. Therefore, reliability which is a design parameter that affects cost and safety of a system should be taken into consideration in early phases since it is very difficult to change design at the later phases. Due to these causes the importance of reliability in manufacturing fields, especially in aviation field, is increasing day by day. In this paper; reliability prediction analysis is introduced for METU Tactical UAV. Reliability prediction for systems and items in Tactical UAV is calculated by using two different approaches namely; first one is that failure characteristics of items are considered as a constant and thus exponential distribution is applied. Secondly, simulated time to failure data having characteristics of Weibull distribution is used and probability distribution best representing the data is determined to show how predicted reliability changes if it is assumed to be exponentially distributed. For the simulation study, graphical approaches namely Quantile-Quantile plotting and probability-probability plotting have been conducted to determine the distribution model. Three-parameter Weibull distribution is considered to model simulated data; its unknown parameters have been estimated with MLE and LSE and for which Goodness of Fit Tests have been applied. In this study, effect of assumption on distribution model to represent the simulated data has been emphasized.

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